Total Armageddon scenario in regards to my picks last week. Only four correct? Hey, at least I picked the Seahawks to defeat the previously un-defeated Niners. If you want to go back and make fun of my horrible prognostication skills, click the link on the right hand sign, go back to last weeks picks column, and have a good laugh. I dishonored all of the NFL media, and must go a perfect 13-0 this week to rectify this injustice. I have a good feeling about it.
| Pittsburgh | 9 |
| Cleveland | 13 |
When you are the Browns, you don’t get many chances to sleigh your hated division foe, but you need to capitalize when they are trotting Mason Rudolph out there. If they can get the pass rush going and keep the game close enough for Nick Chubb to be a factor, they can get it done in prime time. Who would you trust more to lead a final scoring drive, Baker Mayfield, or the skiddish Rudolph?
| Dallas | 27 |
| Detroit | 17 |
Fox programming would have you believe that this game is meaningful for both teams. Unfortunately for Kevin Burkhardt and Charles Davis, the stakes for the Lions are at a season low. At 3-5-1, and without QB Matthew Stafford for a second straight week, Detroit’s chances for keeping this one interesting are slim to none, as long as we see the cowboys offense function at a high level again. Last week, due to play calling, we witnessed maddening sequence after maddening sequence from the Dallas sideline, and I don’t want to do that again. Go beat Jeff Driskel, Dallas.
| Jacksonville | 20 |
| Indianapolis | 21 |
We may have a sneaky good game on our hands IF the QB’s cooperate. Jacoby Brissett should be back from injury, ditto Nick Foles. The relative similarity of these teams should keep thing interesting, but ultimately the Colts’ passer is a tad better, so I will give them the nod. The Colts have been one of the worst teams in the league without their QB and the Jags had been .500. If the Jags lose this one they’re probably done in the division, so their do-or-die situation will invite a close game.
| Atlanta | 17 |
| Carolina | 24 |
Christian McCaffery looks like a superhero running on that grass in Bank of America Stadium. Even with a former superhero wearing Carolina colors sidelined possibly for good with his team, Kyle Allen has been steady enough to beat mediocre squads. But are the Falcons a mediocre squad, I mean, we all saw what went down vs the Saints last week. Yes, to answer my own question, they are. As I posited in this very space last week, division games are weird. But Run CMC vs. the 20th ranked run defense in the NFL? Nothing weird about what should go down.
| Buffalo | 21 |
| Miami | 14 |
The Bills got all they could handle the first time around in a closer-than-it-looked 31-21 bout at New Ara Field back in October. This time around we may get a redux. The Dolphins have been playing consistently better, even bringing a few wins into this contest, while the Bills have been decidedly worse since the last meeting. Coming off a loss to the Browns, Buffalo should be able to withstand the spoiler from Miami just based on sheer talent level alone. The Phins’ rushing attack that rates dead last in the league has to try and exploit the Bills weakness. They’ll get close, but not close enough.
| Denver | 10 |
| Minnesota | 28 |
The Vikings – who up until last week weren’t known for beating winning teams on the road – are a great team at home. Their QB played very well in what we though was the opposite of a “Kirk Cousins spot” last week. Now he’s at home vs a losing team at 1:00pm eastern time, Cousins is in his former sweet spot to destroy an unsuspecting inter-conference scarecrow, i.e. the Denver Broncos. I don’t suspect a Minnesota letdown here as the Broncos, well, the Broncos stink.
| NY Jets | 19 |
| Washington | 13 |
Usually a battle between two teams in last place would be a coin flip, but picking a game that includes Dwayne Haskins starting, more resembles flipping a tire. Pretty heavily weighted towards the Jets here, as the Washington rookie passer struggles through his first campaign. The book is not written yet on Haskins, who has incredible athletic ability, but his time in Washington is starting to follow a Josh Rosen-type path, and the head scratching turnovers we see weekly from him only hurry that inevitability. Sam Darnold and Co. got a much needed win last week, and should keep “rolling” with another one here.
| Houston | 27 |
| Baltimore | 28 |
The best and most important game of the week takes place in Baltimore, as the only match-up of first place teams has all the story lines. Unfair or not, it might serve as a tiebreaker for the MVP vote between Deshaun Watson and Lamar Jackson. What will be fair, is the tiebreaker it will serve as for the actual playoffs. as there are two bye hopefuls. I wanted to pick the Texans in a big spot here for two reasons: First, I’ve been backing them all year, and staying on the train this week before a big win will feel like I was in at the ground floor. Second, I now just trust Watson to get it done in crunch time, so if it;s a close game with Houston possessing the ball at the end, give me the Texans. But alas, I am a certified coward, and after going 4-8 last week with my picks, I have decided to play it relatively safe this time around. I need to see the analytics before I take risks in this column!
| New Orleans | 26 |
| Tampa Bay | 24 |
Well if the Saint can’t beat the Falcons at home, why should we expect them to go into Tampa Bay and beat an offense that has been putting up a ton of points? Because they’re the better team silly. And the Bucs don’t have Ryan Fitzpatrick. They have much less successful, and much more turnover prone version of him in Jameis Winston. Drew Brees was inaccurate last week, but we are still a couple weeks away from the point last year where his arm started to deteriorate. Besides, the Bucs have allowed 27 points in all but one of their games so far this season. Kamara is another week removed from his ankle injury, and Michael Thomas is on pace for like 1000 catches. He might get half of them here.
| Arizona | 20 |
| San Francisco | 30 |
Even though their schedule gets a bit tougher down the stretch, don’t expect a slide from the 49ers after their literal last second win a week prior. Playing a team that can break off a big play at any moment, combined with a maddeningly mobile QB, the Niners defense does has it’s hands full in this game. But as we saw *checks notes* ten days prior, the last time these two teams played, the offense can be there to help pick up the slack. Now this is now an offense that will probably not include George Kittle, and may not include Emmanuel Sanders, but it’s an 8-1 team that has found ways to win all season with injuries at key positions, so I would bet they find a way to overcome these, at least for a week…
| New England | 23 |
| Philadelphia | 20 |
A Superbowl LII AND XXXIX rematch, week eleven’s marqui matchup shouldn’t disappoint either. We may not get the offensive firepower from the last meeting, and maybe no one is playing with a broken leg this time around, but it is another important match up for both teams. In New England’s case, they must fight off the Texans/Ravens surge for the #1 seed. For the Eagles, they have to catch up with the Cowboys, who have a half game lead on them in the NFC East. There is a a chance things even out for the Eagles, as the Patriots play host to said Cowboys next week, but to be surely Philly fans would love this win in their back pocket. I just don’t think they are going to get it.
| Oakland | 35 |
| Cincinnati | 16 |
I might be more confident in a close game here if the Bengals were playing their better quarterback in this one, but with Finley in, I just don’t see it. He may develop as a passer eventually, and these reps might even be key for the young player out of NC State, but the rolling Raiders should keep it going in the Queen City. This is could be a good statement game for the Oakland defense that ranks 28th in DVOA, but 10th in the rushing yards per game.
| Chicago | 7 |
| LA Rams | 12 |
Who do I trust less in this game, the Bears offense, or the Rams? Both have QBs under-performing at their position, while admittedly the expectations for both were slightly different coming into the season. Jared Goff has looked a little rattled through nine games, and Mitchell Trubisky is probably never going to put it together long enough to warrant a Goff-like contract. Rams coach and human genius, Sean McVey needs to cook up something to get his team moving in the right direction, and winning a rock fight against the Bears might give us the appearance that he has.
| Kansas City | 32 |
| LA Chargers | 27 |
The Chargers season is on the line in Mexico City this week. They would hit the dreaded 7-loss mark in week 11, and that would be no bueno for their playoff chances. Especially with the Raiders surging. Speaking of the Raiders, they might win this division if the Chiefs can’t take care of business. Beat your wounded and spiraling division rival, and get back on track.